IFIN / 2. The own goal that can cost a crisis
Italy Giuseppe Pennisi
Thursday, March 10, 2011
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The "European semester" began quietly - at least judging by the poor dedicated to the theme that echoes the mainstream press. It is, however, not an innovation but a method of procedure in "making economic policy", at least in the area now called the press "the eurozone." From the results of innovation will depend to a large extent, the ways and times when the eurozone will be released by the financial crisis that is gripping from 2007, and especially if the eurozone will remain the one we know today or if it has to be changed - for example , with the release of some Member States, or by adopting an area of \u200b\u200bconcentric circles, and at different speeds.
Innovation stronger "European semester" is the preparation and approval of joint or parallel, in all range States, both del Programma di Stabilità Finanziaria (Psf) sia del Programma Nazionale di Riforme (Pnr). Quindi, gli obiettivi e le strategie di riassetto della finanza pubblica vengono coniugati con obiettivi e strategie di riforme economiche, necessari per la crescita e per una migliore distribuzione dei suoi frutti.
Dato che ciò avviene parallelamente in tutti gli Stati (ora 17 dell’area) armonizzando le tempistiche delle procedure parlamentari, nonché sulla base di un’analisi sul potenziale di crescita condotto dalla Commissione Europea e diramato all’inizio dell’anno, ciò dovrebbe promuovere politiche economiche convergenti e, quanto meno, non divergenti o addirittura contrastanti.
Partire well with the "European semester" is necessary for two reasons: first, whether there is a start on the wrong foot there is a danger that the whole set-up, shaky in recent months, could have irreparable damage; from another, February 18 as discussed on these pages, the "half" in 2011 is under a "covenant" France and Germany called for competitiveness "that could call into serious difficulties states such as Italy (imposing massive extraordinary financial measures or the risk of heavy penalties).
We started on the right foot? It is difficult to give a straight answer. On the one hand, the Council of Ministers approved on November 5 last, on the basis of work coordinated by the then Minister for European Affairs, a PNR. The document, however, as those presented by most other states in the eurozone, has not been welcomed by the European Commission, whose paper on the potential growth should precede not follow the PNR of individual states.
It is placed, therefore, the problem of updating the document. The Italian legislation (Law 11/2005, known as Law Buttiglione by the name of the holder of office when it was launched) entrusts the task to Ciace (Interministerial Committee for European Affairs - a Committee of Ministers) and its technical support (the Department of European Affairs at the Presidency of the Council and other officials appointed by the Ministers who make up the body).
In fact, a proxy (it seems informal) was given by Interim Minister since mid-December (Silvio Berlusconi) to the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF). The MEF has an econometric tools to simulate not only macroeconomic, but also the effects of reform policies: the documentation has been put online at the Social Science Research Network March 7, is summarized in the paper "Modelling and the Effects of Macroeconomic Policy Reforms: An Assessment Using Item and Quest For Italy the "Government of the Italian Republic (Italy), Ministry of Economy and Finance, Department of the Treasury Working Paper No. 1 of which the authors are leaders of the MEF and faculty at the University of Rome La Sapienza. From next year, because of a change to the law 11/2005 under discussion in Parliament that the PSF as the PNR will probably be in the hands of a single driver: MEF.
Time is running: the PNR is expected in Brussels in mid-April, but the content of political stability and reform are already discussed in an extraordinary Council of Heads of State and Government on March 24. Before the launch, also requires the Pnr "views and proposals" of the CNEL, consultation with social partners and resolutions by the Parliament.
Italy urgently needs to resume a program to grow. In the absence of an official document of the Government, today Cnel examine a 15-page document in which "views and proposals" are essentially auspices of what should be contained in the PNR. The Budget Committees of the House and Senate are moving in the same direction, strong stimulus Intergroup Europe 2020, composed of 70 members and a technical arm, the Centre for Growth and Employment in Europe.
is a framework in which in essence is very confident in the goodwill and Stellone in italics for a little good-luck 'from our hope that we will succeed. Deserves to be followed closely, not overlooked that, on average, takes weeks.
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