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* "military transition" and development of North Africa and the Middle EAST Velino March 2

ECO - * "military transition" and development of North Africa and Middle East
Rome, 2 March (Il Velino) - The political developments of recent weeks in North Africa and the Middle East raises many economic concerns. The most immediate (e che maggiormente stanno interessando gli istituti di analisi econometrica e la stampa) riguardano gli effetti sull’Europa (e in particolare sull’Italia) dell’impennata dei corsi delle materie prime - soprattutto petrolio, minerali ferrosi e alimentari - con le sue ripercussioni sull’inflazione da costi, e della temuta ondata migratoria. Occorre, però, anche cominciarsi a chiedere quali possono essere gli assetti istituzionali che meglio possono promuovere uno sviluppo di lungo termine dell’area, senza il quale sarà difficile congetturare una riduzione significativa delle tensioni in una regione dove il 60 per cento della popolazione ha meno di trent’anni ed è, per la prima volta nella storia della sponda lower and eastern Mediterranean, not only literate but also accustomed to the use of information technology and communication. Able, therefore, to network, organize and be heard. The U.S. State Department - reads the international press - predict the evolution of constitutional monarchies in the (mostly Arabs) to form the constitutional monarchy and in the other republics. Indeed, the institutional framework that seems to loom could be very different and the privileged role of the military. In Egypt, there was a real "coup" by the staff. Others are possible in Libya (both in the new Republic of Cyrenaica is what emerges from Tripolitania) and in Bahrain, and Morocco (where the infection is extended). A similar process seems to boil in a pot in Jordan (among various groups or factions of the military). The same Arab monarchies will be very different from that of Westminster and to hold as much, especially, to govern and initiate development processes will have to give the military a bigger role than in recent decades.
What are the implications for growth and development in the medium and long term? Posed the problem in 1989, Douglas North (which two years later was awarded the Nobel Prize for Economics) and Barry Weingast, in an essay considered a classic, watching, however, the North Africa and the Middle East, but the evolution towards modernization in Western Europe. The answer was clear and clean them, when a ruling class is no longer able to engage in policies that promote growth and development, must give the scepter to a "wider area" of society. A reading of "feel-good" in the rate of North and Weingast has ensured that this term was often interpreted as giving power to a ruling class that emerged from the "civil society". A careful reading of the work indicates, however, that North and Weingast had in mind a solution "authoritarian" suspend the democratic institutions that own policies to encourage growth and development. A study, still unpublished, F. Clemson University Andrew Hanssen and Robert K. Fleck of Montana State University, uses quantitative data are truly unique to apply the "theorem" of North and Weingast evolution of economic development in ancient Greece, the conditions, in some respects, resembled those of countries in the early stages of economic progress such as those of the southern and eastern Mediterranean. The indicators are statistics (obviously fragmentary) on food, on the construction of public buildings, the evolution of cities and roads.
The conclusion is that the city-state most successful in classical Greece were ruled by "tyrants", with the support of the military. The "tyranny" had a limited duration and implement policies with a strong impact on growth (essential to keep the scepter). The creation of wealth gradually led to forms of collective management of power (and a downgrading of the role of the military). A historical example is recent and has not so much fitting into Turkey of Ataturk but in Egypt, where the process of modernization and development began when the reins of power were firmly in the hands of Mehmet Ali and his troops. Ali was an Albanian commander of fortune, conquered the country in 1805 by extending its influence up to the present Sudan, training (abroad) a new leadership and understanding how the high quality of Egyptian cotton could be the basis of a thriving textile industry. Split Egypt from the Ottoman Empire, endowed with a seemingly political institutions similar to those prevailing in Europe, but essentially such as to take a step back to his military only when the development was self-sustaining (in the design of the time). A curiosity: a lasting legacy of Muhammad Ali is that the court has spoken Italian (for the Albanians had "learned the language") to the Second World War: Faruk was the first and the last king of Egypt in about Arabic correctly. He was ousted when the country is stagnant, in the early decades of the Nasser government (a military backed by the military) it gave the country an industry survey and a modern irrigation system.
(Giuseppe Pennisi) March 2, 2011 20:09