IF PUBLIC SPENDING INCREASES THE GROWTH OF DOUBLE
Giuseppe Pennisi
If our economic diplomacy to be able to amend the "pact for competitiveness" proposed by France and Germany, we will avoid the need for extraordinary financial maneuvers to reduce deficit and debt stock. Scan the much dreaded "asset" that could trigger a crisis of confidence in Italy. Even so, we uncork bottles of champagne. Looking at the regional accounts data, of Italy, one realizes that the various treatments adopted in recent decades have had results well below those expected. The spectrum of measures of corporate finance is still present.
During the period 1996-2008 when GDP increased by a total of 156.75%, the central government expenditure of the state and local governments grew by 225.76%. Although the blocks to hiring, the containment of wages and salaries, the "Gordon Brown's method" of 2002-2006, and "spending reviews" of 2006-2008, the cuts "linear" in place dal 2008 e la contrazione degli investimenti pubblici, la spesa per gli apparati politici ed amministrativi è aumentata ad un tasso doppio di quello della produzione di beni e servizi. Oltre ai tentativi ricordati,va menzionata l’”eurotassa” varata nel 1996 per entrare nel gruppo di testa della moneta unica. Ove le misure adottate avessero avuto unicamente l’esito d’ allineare la crescita della spesa per amministrazioni a quella del Pil, quest’anno la spesa pubblica sarebbe inferiore di ben 30 miliardi di euro (2 punti percentuali di Pil) con un miglioramento significativo della posizione dell’Italia e in termini di rapporto deficit: Pil e d ’andamento del rapporto tra stock di debito e Pil. L’aumento of "administrative" was more rapid than in the Regions "stronger" than in "weak." It has the impression that in the regions 'strong' central governments have sought to have the instrumentation to monitor decentralization. A connection is in contrast with the need to restrain spending and with the goals to transfer functions from the center to the periphery.
Secondly, if the stock of official debt, was added to the "hidden debt" such as claims against companies and even individuals (eg, for those who recently went to rest have not yet been granted the effects of some contractual increases defined after retirement for periods when it was still in office), the ratio to GDP would increase (according to an analysis of the association of research Astrid) by six percentage points, bringing it to around 125%. The figures would be even greater if you add estimates of VAT refunds.
What to do? Realistically it is hard to think of a drastic reduction of the equipment because even if you cut at the political level, the problem would be to absorb the employees. In the rest of the world, two methods have proved effective. In the United States, the requirement of a rigorous cost-benefit analysis of measures with cross-checks of evaluations of the executive and Parliament: the measure was first introduced by the Reagan Administration and then never amended nor new tenants of the White House or the majority who have alternated on Capitol Hill. In France, the program of rationalization of budget choices with which he led the country in the Louvre Agreement of 1987 which established a fixed exchange rate between the franc and German mark. According to the program analyzes government (on how to reduce costs) were published and were the subject of public debate. These verification and transparent debate are the roads that would be worth to beat us too.
0 comments:
Post a Comment