ECO - * "military transition" and development of North Africa and Middle East
Rome, 2 March (Il Velino) - The political developments of recent weeks in North Africa and the Middle East raises a number of economic concerns. The most immediate (and more are affecting institutions econometric analysis and the press) about the effects on Europe (and in particular on Italy), the soaring commodity prices - especially oil, iron ore and food - with its impact on inflation of costs, and the feared wave of immigration. It should, however, also begin to ask what may be the best institutional arrangements that can promote a long-term development of the area, without which it will be difficult conjecture in a significant reduction of tensions in a region where 60 percent of the population is under thirty years and is, for the first time in the history of the lower shore and eastern Mediterranean, not only literate but also accustomed to the use of technology information and communication. Able, therefore, to network, organize and be heard. The U.S. State Department - reads the international press - predict the evolution of constitutional monarchies in the (mostly Arabs) to form the constitutional monarchy and in the other republics. Indeed, the institutional framework that seems to loom could be very different and favor the role of the military. In Egypt, there was a real "coup" by the staff. Others are possible in Libya (both in the new Republic of Cyrenaica is what emerges from Tripolitania) and in Bahrain, and Morocco (where the infection is extended). A similar process seems to boil in a pot in Jordan (among various groups or factions of the military). The same Arab monarchies will be very different from that of Westminster and to hold as much, especially, to govern and initiate development processes will have to give the military a bigger role than in recent decades.
What are the implications for growth and development in the medium and long term? Posed the problem, nel lontano 1989, Douglas North (a cui due anni dopo sarebbe stato conferito il premio Nobel per l’Economia) e Barry Weingast, in un saggio considerato un classico: guardavano, però, non al Nord Africa e al Medio Oriente ma all’evoluzione verso la modernizzazione in Europa Occidentale. Lo loro risposta fu chiara e netta: quando una classe dirigente non è più in grado di impegnarsi in politiche che promuovono crescita e sviluppo, deve cedere lo scettro a un “settore più ampio” della società. Una lettura “buonista” del saggio di North e Weingast ha fatto sì che tale locuzione venisse spesso interpretata nel senso di dare il potere a una classe dirigente che emergesse dalla “società civile”. A careful reading of the work indicates, however, that North and Weingast had in mind a solution "authoritarian" to suspend the democratic institutions precisely in order to foster policies for growth and development. A study, still unpublished, F. Clemson University Andrew Hanssen and Robert K. Fleck of Montana State University, uses quantitative data are truly unique to apply the "theorem" of North and Weingast evolution of economic development in ancient Greece, the conditions, in some respects, resembled those of countries in the early stages of economic progress such as those of the southern and eastern Mediterranean. The indicators are statistics (obviously fragmentary) on food, on the construction of public buildings, the evolution of cities and roads.
The conclusion is that the city-state's most successful classical Greece were ruled by "tyrants", with the support of the military. The "tyranny" had a limited duration and implement policies with a strong impact on growth (essential to keep the scepter). The creation of wealth gradually led to forms of collective management of power (and a downgrading of the role of the military). A historical example is recent and has not so much fitting into Turkey of Ataturk but in Egypt, where the process of modernization and development began when the reins of power were firmly in the hands of Mehmet Ali and his troops. Ali was an Albanian commander of fortune, conquered the country in 1805 by extending its influence up to the present Sudan, training (abroad), a new ruling class and understanding how the high quality of Egyptian cotton could be the basis of a thriving textile industry. Split Egypt from the Ottoman Empire, endowed with a seemingly political institutions similar to those prevailing in Europe, but essentially such as to take a step back to his military only when the development was self-sustaining (in the design of the time). A curiosity: a lasting legacy of Muhammad Ali is that the court has Italian spoken (for Albanians had "learned the language") to the Second World War: Faruk was the first and the last king of Egypt in fluent Arabic. He was ousted when the country is stagnant, in the early decades of the Nasser government (a military backed by the military) it gave the country an industry survey and a modern irrigation system.
(Giuseppe Pennisi) March 2, 2011 20:09
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