CURRENCY: THE DOUBTS OF THE FATHERS
Giuseppe Pennisi
monetary union was created in the wake of German unification. Then those states that were part of the European exchange rate (€ journalistically called EMS, EMS) it became clear that the unification of Germany that it had priority on European integration. They were ready to spend vast sums to the objective (in the first year transfers were made to the five new federal states seem to those carried out under both ordinary and extraordinary intervention of the South) and to sterilize the inflationary effects of monetary policy with the very strict whose impact would be felt in the rest of Europe. The initial proposal came from France, whose exchange rate with the mark was fixed because of the "covenant of the Louvre" in 1987: the creation of monetary union would make college (in the framework of the European Central Bank ECB and the Eurogroup) decisions, however, would remain only within the Bundesbank and the authorities in Berlin. Now, just in France (in many ways the heart of the euro), we have doubts about the future of currency and does not outline paths for the output of this or that country but for a new overall structure of the monetary union.
not just sociological surveys of research on confidence indices (the euro) da parte di campioni dell’opinione pubblica . Sulla scrivania dell’Ing. Trichet , Presidente della Banca centrale europea (Bce) c’è un elaborato del servizio studi dell’istituto (working paper n.1286) finalizzato sull’onda dell’aumento del differenziale dei tassi sulle emissioni decennali nell’eurozona (si va del 3 per cento di quelli tedeschi al’12 percento di quelli greci, al 9 per cento di quelli irlandesi, al 6,8 per cento quelli portoghesi ed attorno al 5 per cento quelli italiani). Lo studio include anche i differenziali (ancora più alti) tra i “corporate bonds” (emissioni societarie) e delinea la “probabilità di una nuova recessione”. L’interrogativo è chiaro: dato che il “salva Stati” può poco o nulla in questa materia, vale la pena insistere? La domanda sarebbe banale se non venisse dal “santuario dell’euro”, dove inoltre è allo studio un aumento dei tassi d’interesse Bce (come dichiarato dallo stesso Vice Presidente dell’Istituto, Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, in un articolo sul “Corriere della Sera”).
Alla vigilia della prossima riunione dell’Eurogruppo (15 marzo), al Ministro dell’Economia francese, Christine Lagarde, è stato consegnato il lavoro n.308 della Banque de France, dal titolo eloquente “To Be or not to Be in a Monetary Union. A Synthesis”. Lo studio, basato su un raffinato econometric model constructed for this purpose, concludes that in terms of welfare benefits to "add credibility" of the policies of States Parties to the club outweigh the costs only if inflation does not exceed 2-3 per cent a year and if the cycle Economic membership is "balanced." You can make fun by saying that there was no need for an elaborate construction of econometric reach this conclusion. What matters is the change of wind to the Bank of France (one of the pioneering activities of the euro). A similar change is felt in the last works OFC (the French institute of economic analysis).
However, una secessione unilaterale (come ipotizzato, ad esempio, dall’economista italiano Paolo Savona) ha un costo pesantissimo per chi la fa (sulla base del crollo di unioni monetarie negli Anni Settanta si può stimare sul 4 percento del Pil). Ed è onerosa anche per chi resta (e perde mercati). Attenzione, però, questa stima, basata su secessioni da unioni monetarie alla fine degli Anni Sessanta (la zona della sterlina), negli Anni Settanta (molteplici in Africa ed Asia) e negli Anni Novanta (la dissoluzione di quella dell’Urss) è stata di recente contraddetta da un lavoro del Fondo monetario (il working paper 10/169) sulla “ordinata” e “non costosa” “de-dollarizzazione” Peru: the costs can be contained if you follow a path in the medium term well-organized.
A road is drawn from Leszek Balcerowiz interesting, well-known economist in Central Europe, President of the National Bank of Poland from 2000 to 2007 is now at the Peterson Institute of International Economics in Washington. Balcerowiz was a passionate "€ enthusiastic." In a work completed in late 2010 (working paper No 10-18) argues that the sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone have to "open eyes", that lead to "growth policies to reduce the debt burden" and to "make more flexible economies "to better deal with new crises. "The model to look to for stability in the euro is not going towards a single state or a federation, but something similar to
